Matt Forte and Joseph Randle lead my lists
Garrett Lee | @TheBasedGarrett
Thursday, August 27, 2015 | BataviasBest.org
To emulate the Talented Mr. Roto, Matthew Berry, here is my Hate It or Love It list for the 2015 fantasy football season.
First off, let’s run through how my Hate It or Love It works.
My “hate” for a player isn’t necessarily my opinion of said player in real life, but rather where he’s being drafted in fantasy football leagues – versus what I believe his real value will be for the duration of the season.
Fantasy football sometimes means loving a player that you hate, and hating a player that you love. However, something to remember is that fantasy football is nothing more than just that; fantasy. Sometimes the players you loathe in real life wind up on your fantasy team, and are crucial to your team’s success – this is ok. Your seething hatred for that player or team may be temporarily placed on the back-burner in lieu of what is best for your FF squad.
Another example of this is, if during a given week your favorite team’s star QB is lighting up your fantasy defense, you might find yourself contemplating whether or not to ask that QB for mercy. After all, his incredible performance could cost you your fantasy football matchup, but then again if his in-game performance begins to regress at your request – your favorite NFL team may drop a much-needed contest. And more so in football than any other sport, fantasy or not, one game matters A LOT. In fantasy football the importance placed on each game is perhaps elevated even more so, as there’s usually just 13 regular season games played prior to the playoffs. In contrast, baseball teams play 13 games in two weeks, hockey and basketball teams do that in three or four. Wins in the NFL and fantasy football leagues are at an absolute premium.
As previously stated, fantasy football is nothing more than fantasy. Sometimes you’re forced to pass up your favorite player and pick up the hated rival. It’s a 3-4 month journey.
You will survive.
LOVE IT:
Tom Brady still awaits his suspension stemming from ‘Deflategate’.
As a die-hard Colts fan, I hate Tom Brady with every fiber of my being. With that said, I drafted him this year and I’ve been questioning my morals ever since. I took Brady in the 9th round, and I LOVE that spot for him. If you can get by with a serviceable back up for the first five weeks of the season, I believe Tommy will be a top-5 quarterback from his 2015 debut going forward. I expect an angry Tom Brady, hellbent on making up for missed time. We all remember what happened after the Monday night thrashing the Pats received against Kansas City last year. I want an angry Tom Brady, no matter how much I hate him.
Last year, Ryan Tannehill was ranked as the 10th-best fantasy QB. Tannehill’s 2014 performance has made him the popular sleeper this year. Who do I think will be 2015’s Ryan Tannehill? Teddy Bridgewater. During his rookie year, he looked pretty impressive once he got the starting job. That was also with an anemic offense. The return of Adrian Peterson and the addition of Mike Wallace give him two more weapons. I wouldn’t be shocked if Teddy winds up somewhere between the 10th and 12th-best fantasy QB.
Joseph Randle could be set for a BIG year.
The Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line is the reason why Demarco Murray had a career year in ’14-’15. Murray is talented, but I don’t think he’s that talented. Nonetheless, Murray packed his bags and headed north to the City of Brotherly Love this past offseason, and my question is, who’s going to replace Murray? I, and many others, firmly believe that man is Joseph Randle. Randle, a 3rd-year player out of Oklahoma State, averaged 6.7 YPC behind that same line last year. That was the most by any running back with at least 50 carries. I know that sample size is small, but I believe Randle is good for 4.5-5.0 YPC behind that line. I picked him up in the 4th round (going as the 20th or so RB), but I believe he has top-1o upside behind that O-line.
Like CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill arrived late on the scene and took off once he got the starting gig in Cincinnati. Unlike CJ Anderson and the other Denver backs, however, I don’t feel that Gio Bernard is a threat to take back what was once his starting job. While I don’t have Hill as a top-5 back, if I’m picking in the last few picks of round one or early in the second, and he is available, I’m taking the second-year back without hesitation.
The New York Jets QB situation is a living, breathing punchline. Figuratively and literally. However, the addition of
Rather than opposing defenses, the Jets’ QB situation may be perhaps the most-difficult for Brandon Marshall to overcome this season.
Brandon Marshall gives that offense a BIG target. I don’t really care who is throwing him the ball, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Marshall flirts with 130 targets. Now, I don’t think Marshall will have triple digit catches but 75-90 catches and a 1,000+ yard and 6-8 score season is attainable when getting fed like no tomorrow. He might no longer be an elite receiver, but a top-20 season is within grasp due to potential volume alone.
As skeptical as I am about the Saints’ offense, there’s one thing I am not skeptical about. I’m all aboard the Brandin Cooks train this year, as the second-year WR has been garnering rave reviews from coaches around the league – including Bill Belichick. I’m not a big Brees fan this season, but Cooks should thrive with Brees throwing the ball. A member of the loaded receiving corps that came out in 2014, Cooks is the go-to-guy in the Big Easy with the decline of Marques Colston and the departure of Jimmy Graham. I’m expecting a breakout year from him, and have no problem taking him a round or so earlier than he’s expected to go.
Greg Olsen
We’re all accustomed to the Indianapolis Colts having a stellar offense and a putrid defense. However, last season, the defense wasn’t terrible and they didn’t have Robert Mathis. With his return, I think the Colts have a lot of value as a viable sleeper defense. Six games versus the Jags, Titans and Texans. That’s Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota/Zach Mettenberger/Charlie “Clipboard Jesus” Whitehurst, and Brian Hoyer. Terrifying names, I know. A week 2 matchup versus Fitz and the Jets, a week 8 matchup against a Benjamin-less Panthers and a week 12 matchup versus the Bucs. Nine good, to very good options – if you’re in a bind for a defense. Don’t worry when someone takes the Seahawks in the 8th or 9th and then defenses fly off the board. While they’re reaching for defenses, take value near the end of the draft and build up your team’s depth at other positions.
HATE IT:
Something was different in New Orleans last year, and that something was Drew Brees. I still think Brees is a very good NFL QB, although one that’s on that downward slope of his career. I no longer view Brees as the perennial top-4 fantasy quarterback we are accustomed to seeing. The loss of Jimmy Graham and a shift to a more balanced offense are my two biggest reasons why I’m skeptical of Brees still being drafted as an elite quarterback. A more balanced attack will undoubtedly take pressure off of Brees, which will decrease his turnovers (17 picks last year), but will also lead to a decrease in TDs. I think Brees’ now projects as a top-7 QB.
Cam Newton and the Panthers could be in trouble this season offensively.
The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is a near-fatal blow for the Panthers. Benjamin’s loss impacts Cam Newton more than any other Panther. Name me one wide receiver on Carolina’s roster…. Odds are you can’t. Greg Olsen is the only semi-household name when it comes to receiving threats; and he’s a tight end.
Peyton Hillis, Tatum Bell, Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno, Reuben Droughns. I can continue, but those are just some of the dozen or so running backs who have started in Denver since Clinton Portis was dealt to Washington back in 2004. For this reason, I’m not buying CJ Anderson in the first round. The Broncos’ backfield is more unstable than the stock market this week, so I have a tremendous amount of trouble believing that Anderson will make it through the entire season as the starter. In 2013, Moreno was the third RB on the depth chart and he ended up having a career year. The same thing happened to Anderson last year. Who’s to say that Anderson doesn’t falter and then Ronnie Hillman comes in and impresses and takes over the starting gig?
Death, taxes, and running backs falling off cliffs once they hit 30. What running back going in the first round turns 30 in
Matt Forte could fall off this season as he continues to get older, and older.
October, might you ask? Chicago’s Matt Forte. He might have had 102 catches last season (an NFL single season record for a running back), but he also averaged the fewest YPC since his 2009 campaign. The Bears’ offense always had elite potential, but with Marshall’s departure and Jay Cutler’s pull-your-hair-out inconsistency – I just can’t see Forte living up to a mid-first round billing this year. In a PPR or 1/-PPR league, he might be able to justify a late-first round selection, but in a standard league I’m not owning Mr. Forte.
Bill Belichick has no problem whatsoever taking away his starting running back’s job and giving it to the next guy in line. Stevan Ridley couldn’t hold onto the ball and lost his job. Brandon Bolden has vanished. Jonas Gray had a 200 yard game with four TDs against Indy last year and then fell off the face of the Earth. I’m not touching any New England running back this year.
Sammy has the talent, but the Bills quarterback situation is a disaster.
The Buffalo Bills still haven’t found their franchise QB, and for that reason I’m not a big fan of Sammy Watkins. I know this may be unpopular, but with no consistency at the helm offensively, I have trouble believing that Sammy will improve on his rookie campaign. Not to mention, he drastically slowed down in the second half last year (top-10 WR in the first half, not in the top-50 in the second half). For a guy that went in the first 50 picks in my league, I don’t see Watkins justifying that pick. I truly do want to see him prove me wrong, and I have no doubt in my mind that he will become an elite receiver in the next few year. But Buffalo must find some consistency at QB before I own Sammy Watkins.
For the first time in awhile, the Oakland Raiders are looking like a competent franchise. The draft picks of Khalil Mack and Derek Carr are great building blocks for the Black and Silver on both sides of the ball. I also think Amari Cooper is the future star receiver that the offense needs. However, I’m not buying Cooper as top-20 WR, like ESPN ranks him. There’s no other viable receiving threats that will concern defenses enough to not focus purely on the rookie. And while I did say Carr is a great building block, I still think the former Fresno Bulldog is looking to find his groove in the NFL. Cooper would be a nice WR3, but his current WR2 average draft position is a little too rich for my blood.
Can Julius Thomas get it done with the Jags?
No longer a member of the high-octane Denver Broncos, Julius Thomas finds himself hoping to maintain his status as an elite tight end. Going from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles will make that one difficult task. Thomas is a special athlete, and I think Bortles will make strides in his first full year as a starter. But if I were to pick Julius, I’m not expecting him to put up double-digit TDs like he did in Denver. In addition to changing teams, he’s add health issues and missed a fair amount of games last season. Someone else can have him.
Believe it or not, the vaunted “Legion of Boom” wasn’t the top-ranked fantasy defense. Nor were they second. The Buffalo Bills claimed the top spot. The atrocious Philadelphia Eagles finished the season as the second-best fantasy defense/special teams. Behind 11 TDs (which were easily the best in the league), 28 takeaways and 49 sacks, the Eagles found themselves among the elite fantasy defenses. This same defense allowed 25 points per game. As Vince McMahon’s entrance theme says, there’s no chance in hell that the Eagles come close to achieving the fantasy success they did in 2014. The additions of Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell should improve the defense, but I’m using this team as nothing more than a streaming option if my defense is on a bye. The sacks and takeaways might be relatively close this year, but 11 TDs is an anomaly.
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This is it for the first edition of my 2015 Hate It or Love It. Weekly columns can be expected once the season starts.
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